Pretty Polly Stakes - Survie

I wouldn’t say “the French are coming”, but there has been a significant shift in the number of French runners coming to the UK and Ireland this season and whilst only Sajir and Lazzat have been successful, the French horses have at least proved themselves to be competitive at the top level. The latest horse to do so was Survie, who finished 3rd in the Paddy Power Pretty Polly Stakes at the Curragh on Saturday. A 3-length defeat behind the Oaks runner-up Whirl and Kalpana is close to a career best for this daughter of Churchill given that she was conceding 12 lbs to the 3-year-olds. She won the Prix de Malleret at Paris Longchamp in July last season and ended her 3-year-old campaign with a solid 7th placed finish in the Prix de L’Arc de Triomphe, beaten 8-lengths. The clues were there in her form. She finished just over a length behind the Arc runner-up Aventure in the Prix Corrida at Saint-Cloud last month and the winner had the advantage of race fitness on her side that day.

Saturday’s race at the Curragh wasn’t really run to suit. A recorded stride length of 7.19m was longer than both of the Fillies who finished ahead of her and she was simply caught out for speed in a race that developed into a sprint with a finishing speed of 107%. Ridden along at halfway, she recorded a top speed of 40.07 mph (ranked 4th) but she finished the race well, clocking 12.14s for the final furlong, faster than both Whirl and Kalpana. Her connections have avoided going back to 12-furlongs so far this season, but both starts to date in 2025 would suggest that it is going to suit and whilst she is going to be vulnerable to genuine speed, the stronger test of stamina would look likely to play more to her strengths. At Saint-Cloud, she recorded a top speed of 63.7 km/h according to the McLloyd sectional data, Aventure recorded 64.8 km/h in the closing stages, which confirms the point to a certain degree. However, on both occasions Survie has finished her race well and I think she has improved as a 4-year-old for the Clement and Hermans team. There are definitely options for her in France, perhaps the G2 Prix Alec Head at Deauville in August or the Grand Prix de Deauville a week later? Alternatively, she has proven herself capable of travelling and that would open up options for her in the UK and Ireland too. At the time of writing she is a 66/1 shot for the Prix de L’Arc de Triomphe. That’s a big price, but at this stage she needs to win a race over 12-furlongs to convince me that she is capable of finding the 8-lengths of improvement needed from last season. However, she holds an entry and is a horse to keep an eye on in the weeks ahead with that race in mind.