Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe - Part 2
In the second part we look at those who are being talked about as each-way chances and whether they represent any value.
Andrew Fabre is without a doubt, France’s master trainer. His record speaks for itself. However, this may prove to be a step too far. Persian king is an outstanding horse, but over 1-mile, with his two best performances, in the Poule dEssai des Poulains (2019) and the Prix du Moulin (2020) being at that trip. This will be his first run at a mile and a half, and being a son of Kingman, there are some serious doubts over his stamina, especially on the forecast soft going. Given his overall form, I can understand connections willingness to roll the dice, but there is perhaps a sense that this is because the yard have nothing else to run. In a strongly run race, he could well struggle.
Hughie Morrisons Colt has always threatened to be a superstar, as he showed when winning the Dante at York as a three-year-old. Until this season, he had always blown his chance away by racing too keenly and pulling hard. However, in 2020 he has matured well and learn to settle. Two group wins at Paris Longchamp and Deauville have yielded over €140,000 in prize money and he is worth his place in the lineup. Christophe Soumillon has built up a nice rapport with the horse and will hopefully retain the ride.
My questions would be the form itself, he has been beaten Romanciere and Soft Light, who have both struggled to land a blow in Pattern company. Telecaster got a soft lead at Deauville, which is extremely unlikely here and he may find himself out classed in this field. However, the more rain the better for Telecaster, if it was soft or heavy on the day and the draw was kind, I could see him making the frame.
Serpentine has had the most unusual preparation of all the runners. Having one a Curragh maiden on the 27th of June and then a week later he won the Epsom Derby. Now much has been said about the race and the form in behind has lots of holes in it but it is hard to avoid the fact that Serpentine was a worthy winner. He set a relentless gallop under Emmet McNamara and galloped all the way to the line. His run last time, when 4th in the Grand Prix De Paris can be forgiven as the race was never run to suit. The issue for Serpentine will perhaps be the way he may set the race up. In order to be seen at his best, he will need to set some stiff fractions in front and in doing so, may well aid the chances of Stradivarius and Co., who want a stamina test but perhaps have slightly more class.