Thursday was a case of what might have been at Nantes. The exacta bet looked nailed on for all bar the final 2 strides when Mystic failed to hold on for second and Julius des Pictons travelled like the winner before a slow jump the second last cost him the momentum and his 9-month absence finally told. Alas that's racing and as long as they go close, it keeps the confidence high that the right horses are being found. We are off to Compiegne today for a decent Flat card with a very interesting Listed feature race, the Prix Charles Laffitte that includes the Prix de Diane 3rd, Tasmania. I have really enjoyed putting a few hours into the study of this 9-race card and I believe that I have found a few angles into the races for which my form notes can be found below.
R1 – 2YO Claimer. In theory Kaleocreek is clear on ratings and Demuro gets back on board. Issue is he was in similar position at Lyon and found one too good. If we assume he runs 3-kilos below his mark, which is probably flattering anyway, opens race up to several who drop out of maiden company.
No bet race.
R2 – Alia’s Rose has a mark of 40 because she won by 6-lengths on debut. Not same horse since and 9th, beaten 10-lengths in G3 last time, never involved. Easier but opposable for sure.
Snowfinch needs further.
Gavilla better than 5th placed finish when no chance from rear in Vichy C2. Won a Clairefontaine claimer time before, but this level? Not sure she has any improvement now (lots of form in Germany suggests she isn’t a 40 horse).
Montjica 1-8. 3rd in big field handicap at Saint-Cloud behind 2 horses rated 40+ (winner sold since). Worth her rating, came with late run and best of those who went wider in the straight. Has turn-of-foot. 5/4 probably fair
Eshiya 2/1 winning debut at Craon. 3rd has won since but both placed horses have OR 36. – Missed the break 4-lengths, needed every yard, ran green.
No bet at these odds
R3 – 2YO Maiden. Nothing appears outstanding amongst the newcomers.
Release Me (2nd) and Prince A Rio (4th) on Deauville PSF debuts. 3rd has won since, Winner placed in C2. Release Me was 7/2, came with sustained run down the outside (Prince A Rio28/1 one paced on inner late). Form is solid enough, no obvious reason why it gets reversed. Treizeme was 6th.
Lovely Marie 3rd on debut at Amiens (Winner, 2nd rated 35 and 32). Kept on without winning. Not same level of form
Bet Placed - Release Me (5/4).
R4 – Good C2 event.
Worth a Team been hurdling, prep for Auteuil perhaps? 64 rated hurdler won 2 PSF claimers on the Flat before hurdles. Off since June.
Coco Du Haut (36) not progressing for me. Leandra won on debut at Dieppe, battered in C1 at Longchamp next time. Sahara Mist ex-Appleby. Won over 3,000m at Toulouse, may lead but surely too slow for this.
Syrakus won by 6l at Fontainebleau, big improvement on first 2 runs. Made All. Went away easily off a slow pace but beat 33 rated Morphewan. Leads here?
King of Records 40 rating based more on earlier form, but 8-lengths 6th in Prix Niel when a pacemaker for Feed the Flame. Competes for the lead here.
A Cannes won at Vichy, given too much to do at Clairefontaine in C2. Better pace to follow here perhaps.
R5 – Big field claimer. Zarica has won 7 of his last 8 starts! This race is no deeper than anything else he has been winning, but I can make a better case for Angelino. Listed placed in Germany, solid enough form, albeit in Germany. Same case made for Saccary (Hickst) who won a Chantilly Claimer after solid form in Germany, Barzalona booked.
Local Whisky the other to note. Rated 36, has 8 wins from 39 starts, including handicap wins this season. Has been off since March when down the field in C2 on PSF track. Opened 10s, if some signs on PMU is of interest on these terms.
R6 – 3YO Handicap (up to 26.5)
Very little solid form on offer as nothing has actually won a race. Recoleros the only angle that stands out. Finished 2nd in a Landivisiau maiden to split horses rated 28 and 29, was weighted to do so. Soumillon booked perhaps the best clue. Yard form has been consistent, 50 winners in 2023, 3 wins and 4 places from last 20.
Bet Placed – Recoleros (4/1) – Win bet on basis of Soumillon booked and very little solid form on offer here.
R7 – Really deep Listed race.
Tasmania top of the ratings (50k). Finished 3rd in the Prix de Diane, 6th last time in G3 when getting no run at all after travelling on the rail behind the leader. In the same form and she is hard to beat if getting a run.
Iznik been going since January, closely matched on literal form with Tasmania on form line through Crack of Light. Form ties in with The Last Waltz (2nd), no obvious reason to reverse it but an honest filly. Wild Pansy 2nd in La Teste listed, ran to her mark of 44.5 but probably no further.
Castana won La Teste maiden, 2nd and 3rd both won next time, much deeper race and rolling the dice for Black Type? Same with Star Galaxy, won Punchestown maiden, probably looking at weaker option in France.
Sacaya comes out of handicaps, but worth it. Won C2 over this C&D, 2nd (Azka) won Quinte handicap at Longchamp last weekend. Well placed but strong travelling. Spirit of Dreams 6th in German G1 last time (beaten 6-lengths).
Bet Placed – Tasmania should win but big field to take 9/4. Taken an EW swing instead on Sacaya (20/1) as far too big on form and C&D experience.
R8 – 3YO Handicap - Morphewan form will be tested by Syrakus earlier in the card. Snuggles made all to win at Saint-Cloud, just held on and think she is vulnerable here under top weight with a stiffer finish.
Kovattack won on 12th start in La-Roche-Posay maiden. Handicap mark of 32 probably fair but been frustrating horse to back. Beat horses rated 28 and 26 in that maiden, albeit by 4-lengths (Making All).
Venes opened Fav (1 from 11 so far). Weighted to reverse form with Snuggles on their Clairefontaine run. On a fair mark, but no more than that.
Alamsar appeals more. Up in trip first time (Cracksman Filly) staying on 5th over a mile at Chantilly last time. Dam rated 44 Listed placed.
Bet Placed – Each-Way bet on Alamsar (11/1)
R9 – Low Grade C4 Handicap – No Bet Race`