Vichy Selections 19th July

A 4/1 winner with Pen and Sword in the opening race on Friday kept the show on the road and so as we reach the end of the Vichy Summer Festival, I have a couple of final selections on Saturday mornings card.

PRIX GERARD SAMOUN (10:59)

This isn’t a particularly deep 3YO Claimer. Sunrise Dream has a rating of 38-kilos and if he runs to that level, he may well win. However, his wins have both come at the 2 tracks in Marseille, which are tight, turning tracks that suit speedy types. The wide open straight and long bend at Vichy is a very different test and the fact that he comes into this race after a couple of below par runs in handicaps would put me off. Wickbury has opened as favourite and given that she has won twice already this season, that’s probably fair. She won over this trip at Lyon last month and ran to a similar level when 4th over a mile there 2-weeks later. She traveled strongly into the race but didn’t quite finish the contest with the same energy level and it’s not a surprise to see her back down to this 1,400m trip. She sets the standard, but it’s quite surprising to see her in a Claimer given her CV and the yard hasn’t had a winner in the last 30 days (22 runners). At 6/4, I’m happy enough to try and get her beat.

I wanted to find a horse who is capable of improving and that brings me to Cahagnes. She is a Kameko Filly who has largely been racing over sprint trips. She travelled nicely over 1,100m at La Teste last time, but racing in rear over an inadequate trip left her with very little chance. Her Dam was a Listed winner over a mile and everything in her pedigree and form would suggest that she will improve for the step up in trip. She won over 6-furlongs at Agen and her 6th placed finish at Saint-Cloud in March, where she was 6-lengths behind subsequent Listed winner Detonate is easily the strongest piece of form on offer in this claimer. An early price of 11/1 is just far too big given the improvement that she appears to be capable of and this looks to be a decent each-way bet against Wickbury. If she runs well, there is the potential for someone to pick up a bargain claim at €14,000.

PRIX DE LA VILLE DE KARLOVY VARY (11:31)

A really tight 2-year-old handicap. Honey Pearl made the running over a mile at Clairefontaine last time. That looked to be a reasonably strong maiden and I liked the way she kept trying in the closing stages once she was headed. However, the drop back to 7-furlongs isn’t an obvious move on that evidence and she will need a very cute ride in front from Theo Bachelot and if this develops into a sprint, she is likely to be vulnerable to those with more speed. Nocturne Blou has the highest rating (36.5 kilos) but her latest start at Saint-Cloud was below her previous level and all 3 wins have come in Claiming company. It’s not impossible to think that there are others in this field that are capable of more improvement, especially in receipt of weight.

The most likely improvers are Ile Aux Roses and Deux de Coupe. The former finished 5th behind Viva La Skids at Lyon, but she was ridden towards the rear and given far too much to do. To her credit, she matched the winner from the 600m point and made up considerable ground on the rest to finish a never nearer 5th. She will win races and an opening mark of 35-kilos looks workable, but she is a daughter of a Camelot mare and with the exception of her Goken influence, she looks bred for a mile and beyond. However, she ran past Deux de Coupe in the Lyon race and given they are likely to race alongside each other, there is no reason to think that form will be reversed. Deux de Coupe finished 4th at Cholet to get her mark, but she raced towards the rear and had to come widest of all to make her challenge. She finished her race well and her pedigree would suggest that this track and trip will suit, but I suspect Ile Aux Roses will just have too much stamina for her and she should improve again and 11/2 represented some fair value.