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Punting Blog - Nantes 5th Oct

The home straight at Nantes racecourse, France

The big field handicaps and newcomers maiden races at Saint-Cloud didn't make too much appeal to me today so instead I will focus on the mixed card at Nantes this morning. It has to be said that a lot of the value in the early prices has gone overnight. I don't bet at overnight prices but it can be frustrating to see the better value taken for such small stakes with the fixed odds firms. Alas, there are still a couple of advised bets below where I think that I can find an angle into a couple of the races.

R1 – Only newcomer is Whiland, an odd mix of speed (Land Force) and stamina (Whim, Nayef). Bred to be alright, but debut over a mile – yard 6 from 80 this year, but 3 from last 20.

Have to start with Ma Mome, has won 4 claimers and finished 5th in a G3. Mark of 35 fair and beaten at Vichy last time but sets the bar. Happy to rule out Mimi Citron and Aloha as they don’t look ready yet (latter ran in snatches in weak provincial maiden last time).

Revalite has run OK in 2 maidens, but head-carriage is awkward to say the least. Bolide Porto 18/1 on debut when 6th at Saint-Cloud. Form not tested but ran on one paced. Easier task.

Cape Cannon rated 40. Fair as he was within 2-lengths of Grey Man at Lyon and 4th in Chantilly maiden in June behind three 40+ runners. Off since and perhaps a little flattered at times but should really be winning this if fancied. – Opened 11/8 but that was taken, 4/5 this morning and not a great odds on bet so leaving the race (would want 2s and not going to get it)

R2 – AQPS Flat race.

Newcomer Killy Ange bred to stay (by Jeu St Eloi). 2 Winners in the field have won bad races in the provinces and are penalised.

King Thou Lez in the tracker from Moulins. Finished 2nd in good finish. Winner placed in G3 next time and 3rd ran well in Auteuil hurdle on Tuesday. Would be hard to beat for all that 10/11 doesn’t appeal much.

R3 – Hard to knock Salocin. Rated 40 and deserves to be. Form in big field handicaps at Deauville is solid. Finished 3rdlast time, winner completed a hat-trick and the second went in next time. Best at the weights. Odds on already this morning.

Could only really find Mystic as an alternative. Decent form at Argentan and didn’t like messy amateurs race at Vichy last time out.

Bet Placed: No value at odds on, taken straight exacta 1-5 instead as I think there are only 2 in this.

R4 – Nothing stands out with the 3 newcomers.

Altesseroyaltavel better than a 40/1 SP when 9th on debut at Clairefontaine, some late headway without looking like a winner. Probably longer term but that’s fair 30+ form. Better form than Seahara who has been 4th in a pair of provincial “boat” races.

Ventosilla 2nd in C&D maiden last month. Closed from Mid-Div to have every chance. Winner stayed on better but beaten since. Vraie Storm led but faded at Fontainebleau last time, debut run when 2nd at CF was better (17/2 SP for that). Trip probably more his bag now.

Marfisa to beat. Rated 35. Solid runs in Spring maidens without looking a winner in waiting. 7th in Longchamp C3 last time, first one off the bridle, one paced but did try. – No Bet Race.

R5 – C4 max field handicap, not a betting race.

R6 – 3YO Newcomer’s hurdle so no obvious bet. Pedigrees of Kubori, Authobello and Kel Raffles make a bit of appeal.

R7 – 4YO Hurdle. Bit of Flat AQPS form. Just a Joke eventually won a Flat race at 10th attempt. Julius des Pictons the more interesting horse. Good form on PSF at Pau and then win at Pornichet in January, off since. Led on the PSF so might go forwards if ready to go.

Joyau Noir won in provinces but outclassed when pulled up at Clairefontaine. Similar form to Jiji Girl who was a one paced 4th at Saint Malo. A little bit more from Jakarta de Baune, staying on 4th at Lion D’Angers in a fair race (at a big price).

Inclined to think Julius des Pictons is the best of these. Fitness the question?

Bet Placed – Julius des Pictons (5/2)

R8- Handicap Hurdle.

Open race but had an eye on Victoire de Baune. Smart hurdler in 2020. Missed 2 years but now fit and well again won at Lion D’Angers despite making jumping errors. 71-kilos not ideal but just wonder if she is better than a 0-55 handicap. Would want 5s or so to have a bet so left it at 5/2.


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