Vichy Selections - 17th July

PRIX HENRI ROSSI

A delicately balanced C2 to start the 4th day of the Vichy festival. Dropshot may well prove to be a group horse in time and he certainly hit the line strongly to win his maiden at Compiegne. Taking on FH Graffard this year can be a futile strategy, but he was beaten on his first 3 starts and the drop back to a mile on a Flat track isn’t certain to suit. I have just enough doubt to want to take him on. Kourpluvix is the least exposed but he had every chance to go past the winner at Marseille and couldn’t do so. This is a deeper race and he has at least 7 lbs to find on my figures.

The French Handicapper has less than 3 lbs between the other 5 runners, but on recent form, it seems best to concentrate on Silgreypit and Vegetale. The former finished 2nd in this grade at Lyon behind Exposure and she did win her maiden over this course and distance last year. She finishes her races well, but I suspect that she needs 10-furlongs and her only win in 7 starts came on debut here in August 2024. Vegetale has much stronger claims after winning a handicap over a mile at Lyon on fast ground 3-weeks ago. He conceded 8-kilos to the runner-up and the pair pulled over 3-lengths clear of the rest. He needs a strong pace to be seen at his best, but I would imagine that Mickael Barzalona will go forward on Dropshot with Kourpluvix likely to sit on his quarters. A stalking ride from Maxime Guyon, who rides this track at a 19% strike rate, is what we are ideally looking for with the cheekpieces applied for the first time. He may bump into a Group horse, but 5/1 was a value price to find out.

PRIX MADAME JEAN COUTURIE

A very difficult Listed feature that really revolves around Al Uqda. She is unbeaten and is arguably the most likely to progress into a genuine Group performer. She’s made all to win all 3 starts and if she gets a soft(ish) lead here, she should be hard to peg back. We don’t know how good she could be and we also don’t really know what she will do if taking a lead. Fleur de Lis, Benamira and Sea the Aurora could race prominently and so whilst I do think Al Uqda is the most likely winner, there’s just a chance that this race becomes competitive from the halfway stage.

I’ve looked for a bit of value with my selection, Pinatique. She is a Pinatubo half-sister to Paix and after winning her first 2 starts, she may have been seen as a disappointment at Toulouse and Lyon. However, those races were testing for both stamina and ground and I suspect that this 10-furlong trip on a fast surface will be more likely to suit. She was faster than Quinteplus over the last 600m at Lyon and that form was boosted when he ran well in Listed company here on Monday. The drop back to 2,000m, especially if the pace isn’t end to end will suit and the fact that she dipped below 11s for the penultimate furlong last time offers some hope that she could win the sprint for home. 11/1 is too big, regardless of the form.

I’ll also add a small note on Calamandra. She is a half-sister to Calandagan and did well to get herself out of trouble to win on debut at Compiegne. She ran poorly at Longchamp and I couldn’t back her here after that run, but she is clearly open to improvement and it’s probably noticeable that Barzalona chooses her over Benamira. (See related articles)

PRIX VILLA L'ORIENTALE

The card ends with a very average maiden. Canneza probably wasn’t ready when running at Saint-Cloud and Chantilly and this is definitely an easier assignment. Barzalona should get a prominent ride and she may well win, but she looked very lightly framed and far from certain to want this test at this point in her development. For that reason, I thought there was some value in Yashan Fal. He finished 4th on debut at Pornichet in November and having raced 5-wide around the bend, the form can be slightly upgraded. It’s nothing out of the ordinary, but he has 4 winning siblings and his Dam is a half-sister to a couple of G1 winners. At 11/1 in a weak maiden, he appeals as an each-way bet for a yard who had a big handicap winner here yesterday.